Amy Walter and Francesca Chambers on expectations for the Biden-Trump debate (2024)

Geoff Bennett:

For a closer look at tomorrow's primaries, as well as a look ahead to this week's presidential debate in Georgia, we turn to the Politics Monday analysis of Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Francesca Chambers of USA Today. Tamara Keith is away this evening.

It's great to see you both.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Thank you.

Francesca Chambers, USA Today:

Thank you.

Geoff Bennett:

So let's start with this New York primary race, because New York Democrats are no strangers to hard-nosed and sometimes super expensive campaigns, but this Bowman-Latimer race has really opened a rift in the party, in the liberal wing of the party, over the war in Gaza.

Amy, help us understand what's happening here, because incumbents typically have an advantage in elections…

Amy Walter:

Right.

Geoff Bennett:

… it would appear, except for Jamaal Bowman.

Amy Walter:

Well, and this is also unique and that it's now officially the most expensive House primary in history, and this coming really from outside groups more than the candidates themselves.

Interestingly enough, while the rift is about Israel, there is also a lot of talk in advertising about other things, namely, Bowman, who is pretty new to the — to Congress, accusing him of not being supportive enough of Joe Biden on some of Biden's key issues.

And I think fundamentally what this really, what this really — what this race really is about, it was an opportunity, I think, for folks who were supportive of Israel to have an opportunity to find a person within the Democratic Party who wasn't as supportive.

And it works in this case. The reason that he is more vulnerable,one, he's pretty new. He was just elected in 2020. And, two, these lines were redrawn after he was elected. Remember '22 redistricting? This district used to have a bigger portion of the Bronx, where Jamaal Bowman is from. It is now a much smaller portion.

George Latimer represents the part of the district that is now, it's like 93 percent of the district.

Geoff Bennett:

That's a great point.

And, Francesca, without reading too much into any one race, I mean, how much will this tell us about the strength of the Democrats' left-wing faction?

Francesca Chambers:

Well, I do think it is emblematic of a conversation that's taking place right now in the Democratic Party over what it means to be a progressive, especially in the post-Bernie Sanders campaign era, because Latimer on his Web site claims that he's a progressive champion in this race.

And so as progressives have gotten successful with their agenda and they have had the effect that they have had on President Joe Biden and his agenda, there's now this debate over what it means to be a progressive. Now, in this election, the way that it could have ramifications outside of this race is when you look at states like Michigan and Wisconsin and the percentage of the vote that got uncommitted or undeclared in the Democratic presidential primary.

That's a problem for President Joe Biden heading into the November election if those Democrats do not feel compelled to come out and vote for him because of his policies on Israel.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's shift our focus to the big political event of the week. That's the debate.

President Biden, former President Trump are set to face off in Thursday's presidential debate hosted by CNN. This is a real opportunity for both men to highlight their competing visions for the country.

Amy, the campaign tells me that President Biden intends to focus on a couple of things, three things, in fact. Roe v. Wade, the overturning of that, attacks on democracy, and both candidates' economic plans.

What does that tell us, big picture, about his strategy?

Amy Walter:

These are the issues that he's been wanting to talk about for a while now, because they are some of the places where he actually is the strongest, especially when it comes to the debate over abortion. It's one of the few places where he has an advantage in terms of trust of voters over Donald Trump.

The other thing I think will be key for Biden in this debate — look, it's early. We have never had a debate this early. I think a lot of people who are checked out of the election right now are not going to necessarily check in, in June. They may do so as we get closer to the election.

I think the group of people he's really trying to move right now are those voters who voted for Biden in 2020, but are now sitting on the fence or saying maybe they're voting for third party. We did some polling in battleground states. About 18 percent of Biden voters in those battleground states are not supporting Biden this time around.

Those are people that theoretically should be the easiest for him to get back into his camp. So I think talking about the issues that would appeal to those voters, many of them are younger, voters of color, who will agree with his positions on issues like democracy and on abortion rights, and even on the economy, talking to them, not so much about what the economy is like now, but what it will look like in four years from now and who's fighting for those voters.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Francesca, meantime, the Trump campaign is trying to recalibrate…

Francesca Chambers:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

… and raise expectations for Joe Biden in this debate. I mean, how tall of an order is that, given that President Trump has spent the better part of the year saying that Joe Biden is cognitively impaired and not up to the job?

Francesca Chambers:

Right.

Now they're trying to raise expectations and say he's going to show up and be very highly alert, that what you should expect is more like his State of the Union performance or his 2012 debate performance against Paul Ryan.

At the same time, the Biden campaign has also in a way lowered expectations for Trump by suggesting that he would come out there and perhaps had the debate performance that he had in 2020 in the first debate performance, rather than maybe the one that he had in the second debate.

So, a tall order for both candidates to clear the expectations their own campaigns have set for the other one.

Geoff Bennett:

And as we wrap up this conversation, we should note this is the second anniversary of the Supreme Court ending decades of nationwide abortion protections in the overturning Roe.

Amy, how resonant an issue is this heading into November?

Amy Walter:

Listen, the Biden campaign wants to make this a focal point. And, thus far, we have seen that it is important to — certainly for many, many voters.

But, again, this is going back to our own polling when we asked voters in these battleground states, all right, you have the choice. If you had to choose between Joe Biden setting economic policy for the next four years or Donald Trump setting abortion policy for the next four years, which one would make you more uncomfortable?

And a majority, about 55 percent, picked they were more worried about Biden and the economy than Trump and abortion. There's also been a great deal of polling out there, another one by KFF, looking at women specifically and how they see this issue. In states where there's an abortion initiative on the ballot, those voters say not only are they more interested in voting, but they are more supportive of Biden.

So if you're the Biden campaign, at least the suggests that for those states like Arizona, where there is an abortion initiative on the ballot, that may help get you some more votes in the bank.

Geoff Bennett:

Francesca, you cover the White House and the campaign. How are both really leaning in on this issue, the White House and the campaign separately?

Francesca Chambers:

Well, President Biden's campaign is actually sending surrogates like Elizabeth Warren to Wisconsin to talk about this issue, which will hopefully, they think, help them with suburban voters, suburban women as well.

And so you would expect President Biden to focus on this heavily. They have released several ads this week on this and also really tying it to their argument that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. In their latest ad, they actually showed footage from January 6 in their latest abortion rights ad.

Geoff Bennett:

Francesca Chambers, Amy Walters, thanks so much. We appreciate it.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Geoff Bennett:

And be sure to tune in to PBS on Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern for our simulcast of the CNN presidential debate with analysis to follow.